Here is an interesting exercise for you to try next time your estimating something e.g, task duration.
- Write down your initial off the cuff estimation, without thinking about the estimation in any detail.
- Think some more about the task and how long it could take if everything went wrong (within reason e.g, discounting riots, natural disasters, coups etc) then write down your new worst case estimation.
- Think about how long it could take to do if everything went right and write down your best case estimation.
Since I first started performing the exercise on myself and team members when estimating I have noticed the following:
- That answer one and three are almost always nearly identical and that answer two is usually significantly different on average from answers one or three.
- Those planning based on estimates prefer accurate estimates to an immediate answer: especially as the immediate answer is usually significantly inaccurate.
- I don’t like causing myself massive stress by making inaccurate estimates that I then have to try and meet and I’ve met few people who enjoy self inflicted stress.
- It is acceptable to ask for some time to think about estimates, even if it feels awkward at first.
- Thinking about similar tasks you have done in the past can be a very useful tool to help contextualise your estimation, if you don’t think about previous experiences you can walk into the same miscalculation again and again…
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